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DEBT AND FINANCES.

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DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Tue Nov 20, 2012 3:35 pm

HI,
I find the world monetary debt crisis very interesting, and as a hobby like to keep up to date with events.

The USA is very near folding unless they can resolve their debt problems which seems to be impossible at the moment, and if not they will suffer another depression, one down from a recession, as in 1929.

This will have a knock on effect to the rest of the world, just as the wall street sub prime/toxic mortgage scam of a few years ago, that caused the latest crisis.

At the present time the total USA debt is a colossal-----58+ TRILLION, that's right TRILLION.
This debt cannot be serviced, so there is a crisis in the USA at the present time.

check out the world debt clock.

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The UK total debt is almost 1 TRILLION, and rising.

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The EU debt is also spinning out of control as our leaders fiddle while it burns.

Just check out Greece, totally bankrupt, but being propped up.


All situations have a conclusion, either same, better, worse, as for this one I fear the worse.

HAA
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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by Blonde_Tim on Tue Nov 20, 2012 4:33 pm

i dont think the us is really in danger territory of not being able to finance its debt.

depending on what the looming fiscal drag (upto 4.5% of nominal GDP, a decent amount of it will be legislated away) will end up as, the growth may slow to a 'stall' speed (1-2% growth). Plus total US government debt is 20 trillion, about 3/4 of the GDP, not 58 trillion. a recession is possible not probable (in 2013/14), and certainly not a depression.

Greece can either return to the drachma, have a massive devaluation to return to competitiveness and suffer 5+ years of economic suffering, or struggle on as they are for 15+ years before they return to a near even keel.
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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:04 pm

Blonde_Tim wrote:i dont think the us is really in danger territory of not being able to finance its debt.

depending on what the looming fiscal drag (upto 4.5% of nominal GDP, a decent amount of it will be legislated away) will end up as, the growth may slow to a 'stall' speed (1-2% growth). Plus total US government debt is 20 trillion, about 3/4 of the GDP, not 58 trillion. a recession is possible not probable (in 2013/14), and certainly not a depression.

Greece can either return to the drachma, have a massive devaluation to return to competitiveness and suffer 5+ years of economic suffering, or struggle on as they are for 15+ years before they return to a near even keel.


HI, the USA government debt has to be serviced by repayments through the tax system, but the tax gathered falls short.
the citizen debt has to be serviced through wages after tax. [as is the UKs]

both are in debt adding up to total debt of 58+ trillion, and rising, this cannot be serviced unless the USA keep on borrowing and printing notes.

OBAMA has promised the voters more health care, costing billions of cash they do not have.

China is owed several trillions.

The wealthy who are going to be taxed more, will just go off shore, and the extra tax will only be a drop in the ocean.

They have a trade deficit of billions, and the total debt per citizen, equals out to $187.000 and the individual is $ 50.000.

credit card debt is 847 billion.

Only about a third of the population pay tax, 22 million unemployed, 47 million on food stamps.


Mathematically, under the present situation, it is impossible to pay off the debts.


As for Greece why should hard working tax paying northern states prop up the lazy non tax paying mediterranean states? who have still done nothing about their bankruptcy.

France has just been downgraded, and the UK still is in debt 1 trillion and rising, more redundancies/closings reported.

so it will be more "quantitative easing" ie. print/borrow to prop us up.


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ps I see one of your chums just got sent down for "fraud" 1 billion after ducking and diving. {USB}


This is not a doom and gloom post just expressing a interest in financial affairs

HAA




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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by Blonde_Tim on Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:23 am

Hi Alex,

Its worth looking at Government debt/GDP percent, rather than outright figures.

the US has an independent central bank that can, and has worked as a lender of last resort which makes the level at which debt is serviceable will be different from country to country.

i dont think the northern EU countries should have to, but how much is merkel et al looking to save the euro? how anyone thought that having a basket of countries, all with differing economies being controlled under one set of rules is beyond me.

they are doing things to bring in reforms. unfortunately that is not going to happen over night.

What do you mean 'one of your chums' with regards to the UBS trader?!

Tim
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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:57 pm

Blonde_Tim wrote:Hi Alex,

Its worth looking at Government debt/GDP percent, rather than outright figures.

the US has an independent central bank that can, and has worked as a lender of last resort which makes the level at which debt is serviceable will be different from country to country.

i dont think the northern EU countries should have to, but how much is merkel et al looking to save the euro? how anyone thought that having a basket of countries, all with differing economies being controlled under one set of rules is beyond me.

they are doing things to bring in reforms. unfortunately that is not going to happen over night.

What do you mean 'one of your chums' with regards to the UBS trader?!

Tim

HI,
do you mean the fed reserve? [check out their history/foundation] where do these independent banks get their
credit from to issue loans?, its like a madoff ponzi scam, credit and loans going around in circles, and if the loans were called in, the USA banking system would fold.

As for the EU, it started as a common market for trade, [real reason to stop European wars] the out come is a failed state, practically bankrupt, unable/unwilling to fix it with its master Germany.

ref. chums, I was being jokey as I believe you work in the money market, no offence intended.

lets look forward say 50 years, many of the loans will still be outstanding, China will rule, and a war will have taken place to see who rules the roost.

nothing will have changed, its what we do.

HAA

ps. we just gave the Syrian freedom fighters 1 million we have not got, nice.


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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by Blonde_Tim on Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:09 pm

HI,
do you mean the fed reserve? [check out their history/foundation] where do these independent banks get their
credit from to issue loans?, its like a madoff ponzi scam, credit and loans going around in circles, and if the loans were called in, the USA banking system would fold.

As for the EU, it started as a common market for trade, [real reason to stop European wars] the out come is a failed state, practically bankrupt, unable/unwilling to fix it with its master Germany.

ref. chums, I was being jokey as I believe you work in the money market, no offence intended.

lets look forward say 50 years, many of the loans will still be outstanding, China will rule, and a war will have taken place to see who rules the roost.

nothing will have changed, its what we do.

HAA

ps. we just gave the Syrian freedom fighters 1 million we have not got, nice.[/quote]

Hi Alex,

Not sure about a 'ponzi scheme', but there is a credit cycle.

problem is most of this relies on confidence, in debtors/creditors, strength of countries etc.

As for the EU/failed state, agreed. how long the german electorate will stand for it will be a telling point i think.

ref: chums, no problem at all. i dont, but work for a research/strategy firm on the client side, though not technically 'in the markets' yourselves.

Not sure china will rule, they are seeing effects too. granted not as much as other parts of the world, but their investment led growth model (internal investment to promote growth) is now null because it was not based on demand. growth still likely to be 4-6% next year which is much higher than most of the world, but still a big drop from the 10/9%'s of previous years.
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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Wed Nov 21, 2012 4:22 pm

do you not find it strange that when governments are broke they borrow from lenders who have credit to lend? where does this wealth/credit come from?

Which begs the question who runs the country, governments or lenders?

"Let me issue and control a nation's money and I care not who writes the laws."
Mayer Amschel Rothschild, 1790


"When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes... Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain."
Napoleon Bonaparte, 1815

you may find this interesting


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HAA


PS. meanwhile my fuel bill just went up. Suspect
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ITS GRIM OUT THERE

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Sat Nov 24, 2012 11:13 am

tighten your belts chaps, gas,electricity,water, prices up, income down, job losses, and now the latest lame duck to prop up.

Cyprus is set to become the fifth euro-zoneas country to receive an emergency bailout, as it finalises a package with international lenders.
It could be given as much as 17.5 billion euros – equivalent to its entire annual economic output – as the country’s economy is battered by its exposure to the crisis in Greece.
The tiny Mediterranean country will follow Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain into the arms of the emergency rescue funds set up for the 17-member euro currency zone

once the euphoria of xmas is over, the new year may well bring a massive downturn in our fortunes, as the ability to get out of the pit we are in is diminishing due to lack of leadership and funds.

but there is always pay day loans next to the pound shop, You may be tempted to borrow money using a payday loan, but with interest rates as high as 2,000% APR or more they could prove very expensive, check out "usury" .

so, think and plan ahead, and prepare for the worst.


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Cameron rounds on EU leaders who quaffed £120 bottles of wine over lunch while insisting there was no room to make savings in the Brussels budget






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Re: DEBT AND FINANCES.

Post by HAPPYANGLERALEX on Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:02 am

Eurozone finance leaders thrash out a £39bn debt deal for Greece after 12-hour crisis talks in Brussels

Ministers took twelve hours to thrash out the agreement in Brussels last night, which will provide more hand outs today.a debt to pay off a debt to stop greece folding.


Greece paid £36 billion in bailout money next month.

more debt for Greece, to pay off old debt, as they slip further into the pit, and still the "austerity measures" are not in place.

the £36 billion does not exist, it is a electronic transfer to be used to prop up a failed state.

its another ponzi game.

check out on the box/web RT russia today max keiser report. he is a bit wacky but spells it out.

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